Daily Boost

Encouraging Poll Results

For those who may have been discouraged by the much-ballyhooed Gallup pole last week, and other polls with similarly flawed methodologies, here are some more recent, and more encouraging results from polls from well-regarded sources.

---Democracy Corps

Kerry 46%, Bush 47%. Poll of 1017 likely voters conducted Sept. 19-21. Margin of Error +/- 3.1%. May overstate Bush vote, in that 51% of repondents reported having voted for Bush and only 43% for Gore in 2000

---Economist/YouGov

Kerry 46%, Bush 45%Bush Approval Rating - Approve 43%, -Disapprove 53%. This is ongoing weekly poll. Last week's results were Bush 47%, Kerry 46%, so this week shows a nice shift. Respondents in 18-24 age group prefer Kerry 53% to Bush 33% (Get those kids to the polls) Poll of 1660 likely voters conducted Sept 20-22. MOE +/- 2%

---American Research Group

ARG is conducting on-going polling of each of the 50 states and weighting the results to derive overall national numbers. The current results, on the basis of polling of 600 likely voters from each state (MOE +/- 4%) during September:

-George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
-Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
-Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
-Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
-Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
-Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
-Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
-Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Even the Voice of Darkness (Fox News) has the race at Bush 45%, Kerry 43% in its poll conducted Sept 21-22 of 1000 likely voters (MOE +/- 3%). So don't give up hope!

Who's the Real Flip-Flopper

The media finally seems ready to look at which candidate is more deserving of the infamous "flip-flop" label with which BushCo has been able to tag Kerry. The Washington Post addressed the issue yesterday:

The flip-flopper, Democrats say, is President Bush. Over the past four years, he abandoned positions on issues such as how to regulate air pollution or whether states should be allowed to sanction same-sex marriage. He changed his mind about the merits of creating the Homeland Security Department, and made a major exception to his stance on free trade by agreeing to tariffs on steel. After resisting, the president yielded to pressure in supporting an independent commission to study policy failures preceding the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Bush did the same with questions about whether he would allow his national security adviser to testify, or whether he would answer commissioners' questions for only an hour, or for as long they needed.

The WaPo actually looked at Bush's record and agreed:

The record, however, suggests a fair degree of political calculation has gone into some of Bush's about-faces. During his first term, the paramount goals -- such as cutting taxes or pursuing a confrontation with Saddam Hussein -- have been fixed. But this has allowed room for tactical maneuvering on other questions. In 2000, Bush said he would include carbon dioxide on a list of air pollutants requiring federal oversight, a stand he abandoned within weeks of taking office. A month after the Sept. 11 attacks, Bush's spokesman said the president believed a homeland security department that Democrats proposed was "just not necessary." A year after that, Bush had switched course and was lashing some Democrats for not moving quickly enough to approve the agency.

While Bush professes himself a strong free-trader, most other free-trade proponents said he bent on principle in March 2002 when he ordered tariffs on imported steel -- a move that resonated politically in electorally important industrial states such as Pennsylvania. Facing an escalating global trade dispute, he lifted the tariffs at the end of last year.

On CNN Inside Politics today, GOP lap-poodle Judy Woodruff served up the issue to Marc Raicot, Chairman of the BushCo campaign, so that he could deliver an unchallenged response that ignores the question of Bush's changes of position, instead listing Kerry's supposed flip-flops:

WOODRUFF: Well, speaking of changing positions, "The Washington Post" today, a front-page story reporting that, over the last four years, it says the president has -- quote -- "abandoned positions on issues such as how to regulate air pollution, whether states should be allowed to sanction same-sex marriage, changed his mind about the merits of creating a Homeland Security Department, about whether there should be an independent 9/11 Commission" and so on and so on.

The question it raises is, is President Bush every bit the flip- flopper that John Kerry is claimed to be by the campaign?

RACICOT: Well, I think the American people understand that's not even remotely close to accurate.

The fact of the matter is, there are different moments in time in the production of a decision or a vote. And, of course, you go through a public discussion and the marketplace of ideas is considered and then you take a position. The senator and the president have had exactly the same opportunities to take exactly the same positions at virtually every moment in time in reference to Iraq. The senator votes for the use of force aggressively. He votes against the appropriations.

He claims to be an anti-war candidate. He claims then it's the wrong war at the wrong time at the wrong place. And then he in essence says we're going to admit defeat and retreat from Iraq because we would be safer had it been the other way from what it is that I voted throughout the course of this past several months.

So the bottom line here is, Judy, these are two entirely different people who reflect two entirely different capacities to be leaders and to take this nation to a position of being safe and secure.

WOODRUFF: Governor Marc Racicot, chairman of the Bush campaign, thank you very much.

Woodruff did, at least, later bring on Harris to discuss the Bush flip=flops he had written about in the Post:

WOODRUFF: What about in the president's background, in his record? How much is -- is there any fertile territory there for the Kerry people to exploit at this late date in terms of the president's changing his mind?

HARRIS: Well, I think you put your finger on it by saying at this late date. The president -- and you can point to polls that prove this -- is seen as somebody who's very strong, resolute, to the point of stubbornness.

They tried making this accusation that President Bush is a flip- flopper also, and it just wasn't resonating with the public, because that is not how he's perceived. That's not to say, as I think my article made clear, that the president's perfectly consistent on everything. But political ground it's just not been terribly fertile for Kerry.

WOODRUFF: What has the president changed his mind on? I mean, most prominently.

HARRIS: I sort of put it in two categories. There's issues where he has substantively done what I think we'll call some tap dancing.

He's a free trader, and yet he did in 2002 impose steel tariffs for what looked like political reasons. Then later backed off that.

Things like the Department of Homeland security in 2002. He initially thought it was a bad idea. Then came around to support it. Those are sort of policy positions.

And then rhetorically, even where his goals have been consistent, some of his rationales for those policy goals have changed. Iraq is a great example.

It started off about being about weapons of mass destruction. Now, of course, it's more about democracy building in the Middle East.

Tax cuts is another place where initially the rationale was, because we got a surplus we can afford tax cuts. Then it became, because we've got a deficit and a lagging economy, we need them. So, anyway, there's examples there.

In her interview with Harris, Woodruff had the temerity to ask: "Why do you think that the Bush people, though, have been so better able to capitalize on this thing of changing minds?" As if she didn't know. The reason that these Karl Rove concocted slogans gain credence is because the hacks posing as journalists on the tube are willing to repeat them over and over, without any challenge to their factual basis.